Global Orange Juice Shortage: Causes and Impacts

Causes of the Shortage

The global orange juice industry is currently grappling with a significant crisis, largely attributed to severe drought conditions and the alarming spread of citrus greening disease. These factors have hit major orange-producing countries, particularly Brazil and the United States, hard. The drought has been described as the worst in 50 years, drastically affecting crop yields and putting immense pressure on the industry.

Brazil, the largest producer and exporter of orange juice, has reported a staggering decline in production levels. Yields are projected to plummet by nearly 25% from the previous year, a situation exacerbated by the detrimental effects of citrus greening disease. This disease, caused by the bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter, is spread by sap-sucking psyllid insects and has left 38% of Brazil’s orange trees exhibiting symptoms in 2023.

Impacts on the Market and Consumers

The repercussions of this shortage are evident across various sectors, particularly in pricing and supply dynamics. As orange juice production continues to decline, the market has seen historic price highs emerge. Concentrated orange juice futures recently surged to an all-time high of $4.92 a pound, reflecting a price increase nearly triple that of two years ago. This unprecedented rise in cost is alarming for both consumers and retailers.

Globally, orange juice production for 2023-2024 is projected to be 10% lower than the five-year average. This could lead to the lowest availability of orange juice in over half a century. In Florida—a key contributor to orange juice supplies—the situation looks dire, with production figures collapsing from approximately 242 million boxes two decades ago to just around 17 million today, primarily due to citrus greening.